Bulletin #03: Oil spill trajectory model forecasts that spill will reach Bataan and Batangas

Featured image: Bulletin #03: Oil spill trajectory model forecasts that spill will reach Bataan and Batangas

* Update as of 8:28PM, July 31, 2024: The projections of oil reaching Maragondon, Cavite and Lian and Calatagan, Batangas are low confidence only. This is based on information released by PhilSA at 7:42PM, July 31, that the oil spill near these areas are low confidence (https://bit.ly/4fiVKGG).

An oil spill trajectory model was run to forecast the transport of the oil based on prevailing ocean currents and weather patterns. Based on the map of the extent of the oil spill from satellite image dated July 30, 6:07PM, oil may be transported to the following coastal areas and are projected to landfall at these times:

Models are generated to inform the public on the potential direction of transport of the oil spill and help direct response efforts on the ground. The models don’t take into consideration efforts on the ground to clean-up and remove the oil, and just projects where oil might go from the starting position captured by the satellite image. Models have some levels of uncertainty due to assumptions and limitations, and thus, should be used with caution.

* Description of the Oil Spill Trajectory Model: The model used is the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) for predicting the fate and transport of pollutants, such as oil, spilled into the ocean. The model for the MT Terra Nova spill uses surface velocity fields from Global Ocean Physics Analysis and Forecast and surface winds from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System. Spill location was specified based on the oil spill extent map provided by Copernicus dated 7/30/2024 18:07 PHT. Information about the model is available at https://response.restoration.noaa.gov/gnomesuite.